There are 25 teams that start the season in the preseason US LBM coaches poll. However, history has shown that several will not be in the final rankings released after the national championship game.
Recently, it’s just slightly better than a 50-50 proposition that teams remain. Last season, there were nine teams that didn’t finish in the Top 25. There were 14 that didn’t make it in 2022. And 12 dropped off in 2021. In the three seasons before then, the average was double-figures. Such is the difficulty of predicting how things will play out in the era of the transfer portal and conference realignment.
So with that in mind, who are the overrated college football teams before this season starts? Here are the five most likely to fall back from where they started. They might have good seasons, but the expectations in August are way too high.
Michigan
The Wolverines are the lowest-ranked defending champion since Auburn in 2012. They still appear too high at No. 8 given the departure of Jim Harbaugh, the loss of key personnel to the NFL and increased competition in this year’s Big Ten. Oh, and there’s also a difficult non-conference game against Texas. The quarterback situation was unsettled after spring, meaning the already limited passing game will have challenges. New receivers and offensive linemen must step up. Expect coach Sherron Moore to stick with a ground-and-pound attack to shorten games. The defense can help keep games close against top competition. The offense doesn’t look to be good enough to win them.
Florida State
The sting of missing out on the College Football Playoff surely will be motivation for the No. 10 Seminoles. It’s also worth remembering many of the key players on that team are no longer in Tallahassee. The notable departure is QB Jordan Travis. Florida State has turned to DJ Uiagalelei to fill the void. He has ACC experience from his time at Clemson, but he’s still an inconsistent passer with a rebuilt receiving group. On the plus side, the offense has significant experience returning. The defense brings in several players from the portal, but getting this group to jell quickly could be a challenge. This won’t be an unbeaten regular season and probably multiple losses will keep this group from winning the ACC again.
Missouri
Most of the key offensive players returning from an 11-2 team should predict another strong season for the 11th-ranked Tigers, who added several transfers at key areas. Further examination of last year, though, illuminates that there weren’t a lot of high-end wins to shout about – beating a depleted Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl doesn’t count. Expecting this to be a playoff team, however, seems optimistic given there are still holes on defense and uncertainty at running back. The one thing working in Missouri’s favor is the easiest schedule in the SEC. Still, there should be an unexpected slip or two that keeps them out of the expanded 12-team field.
Miami (Fla.)
Another ACC team from the Sunshine State checks in here. Coach Mario Cristobal embarked on another roster makeover after the Hurricanes finished 7-6 last season, bringing in QB Cam Ward and RB Damien Martinez to bolster the offense. There are additions on defense, too, as the Hurricanes finally hope to become relevant in the ACC. But we’ve been here before, waiting for a breakthrough. Miami starts at No. 19 and has been roughly in this spot the past two preseasons before finishing out of the poll. So what makes this year any different? Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, you get no benefit of the doubt. We’ll see if it all comes together. But it’s probably best to take a wait-and-see approach.
Kansas
There’s a lot of hype coming out of Lawrence given the Jayhawks are ranked in the preseason poll for the first time since 2009, and QB Jalon Daniels is expected to be healthy after two injury-marred seasons. They also have most of their skill players returning. That’s the good. Now the bad. The offense saw coordinator Andy Kotelnicki depart, and there’s no veteran backup behind Daniels should he go down. The defense lost several key players up front, so expect a lot of close shootouts in the expanded Big 12. It’s hard to expect Kansas to survive most of them.
