Like an already convulsive presidential election cycle, the NFL is about to kick into high gear with teams set to report to training camps en masse this week. And like the election, just when you think you’ve fully grasped what’s going on with America’s most popular sports league … well, think again. And then again. Upsets, injuries, firings, pressure, chemistry and other factors can all instantly change the complexion of the pro football landscape – just ask Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, the Eagles, Bill Belichick or even eventual champion Chiefs, each veering into unexpected outcomes during a wild 2023 campaign.
Onward.
With preseason just around the corner, and all 32 rosters about as optimized as they’re going to be, it’s time to delve into our annual exercise of projecting each club’s record – and that means caucusing our way through the league to find the best teams before winnowing the field to 14 postseason qualifiers and, ultimately, attempting to determine who’s atop the Super Bowl 59 ticket seven months in advance. And while it doesn’t drive the outlook, be mindful of history – and that means some team is probably going from worst to first place (or vice versa), the playoff field will turn over by at least four teams (as it has in each of the previous 34 seasons) … and, sorry K.C., there probably won’t be a three-peat champion, none ever materializing in the Super Bowl era (since 1966).
(A note on methodology: Using the most current information amid a few iterations of this exercise, I predict winners and losers for all 272 regular-season games to arrive at my projections. The outcomes allow me to apply tiebreakers, when needed, to determine and seed the 14-team playoff field before arriving at a champion. Warning, past performance is no guarantee of future returns.)
Now, without further ado, the results of our way-too-early exit polling:
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NFC EAST
(3) Philadelphia Eagles (10-7): They have their third set of coordinators (OC Kellen Moore, DC Vic Fangio) since the start of the 2022 campaign, when they advanced to Super Bowl 57; said goodbye to retired former mainstays Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox; and welcomed free agent RB Saquon Barkley and DE Bryce Huff (and welcomed back DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson) before adding what appears like another strong draft class. Quite a bit of turnover. But what rarely changes about this franchise is its ability to win – Philly missing the playoffs just once since the start of the 2017 season. No team has successfully defended this division’s crown in 20 years, another reason to expect the Eagles to reclaim the top spot – though they’ll have to survive a September slate that includes two road games and one home date … in South America.
Washington Commanders (7-10): New front office, new coach (Dan Quinn), new locker room leaders, including first-round QB Jayden Daniels, and just a generally growing good-feels vibe as this organization continues moving beyond its former regime. Though the bottom fell out on the field last year, it seems like Washington should get back to the seven- or eight-win plateau where it’s hovered for the better part of a decade. But it feels like the Commanders are actually charting a positive course this time rather than treading water – and don’t be surprised if they struggle early and finish strong, which would seem to align with their schedule and the familiar arc of many rookie passers.
NFC NORTH
(5) Detroit Lions (11-6): Like the Pack, their Lombardi bid last season came up just short in a playoff loss at San Francisco. However outside expectations will now match what HC Dan Campbell has demanded internally from his team the past few years. The rest of a division the Lions just won for the first time is also fast improving. A pathway to the first Super Bowl berth in franchise history likely requires a strong start as the Lions play just two home games over an eight-week period spanning October and November. But it could happen if a young core continues to blossom – WR Jameson Williams needs to step up – and reaps results from an upgraded pass defense.
NFC SOUTH
(4) Atlanta Falcons (9-8): Their superflex approach to roster building will doubtless draw further scrutiny during camp and preseason given the likelihood first-round QB Michael Penix Jr. will flash mobility and arm strength Cousins could only dream of. But the Falcons didn’t sign the veteran to a four-year, $180 million deal without the expectation he’d significantly upgrade a position that began to betray the team when Matt Ryan went into decline in 2021, his final year in the ATL. The Falcons have plenty of talent, a new coach (Raheem Morris) who was hired over Belichick and has been consistently praised by his players elsewhere and the benefit of the league’s weakest schedule. Between Week 3 and 9, the team will play five home games and face all of its divisional foes – a stretch that could launch Atlanta to its first NFC South crown since 2016.
New Orleans Saints (8-9): They’re 25-26 and without a playoff appearance since QB Drew Brees’ retirement – and little reason to expect much else now. Despite quite a bit of churn behind center the past few years and, now, philosophically after the departure of longtime OC Pete Carmichael Jr., the roster doesn’t look markedly different overall – even with last week’s news that RT Ryan Ramczyk is unsurprisingly lost for the season to chronic knee issues. Unless new OC Klint Kubiak can ignite this attack – and that will mean significantly more from QB Derek Carr and contractually disgruntled RB Alvin Kamara – the Saints don’t have much of a prayer.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9): Let’s first salute an organization that hasn’t missed postseason since 2019 and hasn’t finished outside first place in the division since 2020. Let’s also be realistic about a squad that’s 18-19 over the past two seasons, playoffs included, and has benefited from its station in the NFC South. The Bucs literally allocated hundred of millions into continuity this spring, specifically a three-year, $100 million reinvestment in QB Baker Mayfield. But staying on top, even amid this quartet, won’t be easy. Between Week 2 and 10, Tampa Bay will have three divisional games and four more against all of the teams that reached last season’s conference championship round.
NFC WEST
(1) San Francisco 49ers (13-4): Logical as it is to keep WR Brandon Aiyuk now (and well into the future), this is probably the Niners’ last crack at Super Bowl glory with this entire foundation given the cap-crushing windfall that’s invariably coming to Purdy a year from now. But presently, San Francisco certainly has the horses – many of them thoroughbreds – to make a very deep playoff run … and maybe win the photo finish this time after Super Bowl 58’s near miss. Primo opportunity for a fast start with five of their first six contests against 2023 non-playoff teams.
(6) Los Angeles Rams (10-7): For the second straight year, they enter the season with major questions on defense – this time due to the retirement of Aaron Donald and the departure of Morris, who’d been the coordinator since 2021. But the Rams invested heavily on that side of the ball in the draft while reallocating copious cap resources into the offensive line. And if WR Cooper Kupp can play his first full season since a scintillating 2021 showing, LA could have the best receiver tandem in the league if Puka Nacua simply approaches his record-setting rookie effort. October could be a critical stretch given the Rams will be home the entire month.
Seattle Seahawks (5-12): New coaches, new playbooks, new culture … and hardly any guarantee that this roster currently fits the philosophies of Mike Macdonald, 37, now the youngest HC in the league. Hard to believe a group that’s been ineffective defensively while struggling to run the ball in recent years will suddenly do an about-face in 2024 – and having just three home games in the season’s second half certainly won’t help.
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AFC EAST
(5) Buffalo Bills (10-7): They won seven of their final nine games last season, both losses by three points (including a playoff heartbreaker at home against the Chiefs), after installing Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator. Though WR Stefon Diggs wasn’t a major component of that hot finish, Buffalo will have to carry on without him, WR2 Gabe Davis and quite a few former key players the team just couldn’t afford to keep. And the Bills better adapt to their new reality by midseason because, between Weeks 9 and 15, they’ll face just one team that didn’t reach postseason in 2023 – and that apparent reprieve is a Week 11 trip to Indy. Maintaining their divisional eminence might be too much to ask of QB Josh Allen and Co. in the midst of this adjustment period.
New England Patriots (3-14): For a team that plays in the shadow of a lighthouse, 2024 has been a sea change – most notably from the organizational chart to the quarterback depth chart. Rookie HC Jerod Mayo and rookie QB Drake Maye may both be great … eventually. Yet given how little the roster has evolved otherwise – one that won four games in legendary Belichick’s final season in Foxborough – expectations have to be realistic. And it might be something of a wait before Mayo breaks into the win column … though the Pats could very well “win” the No. 1 pick of the 2025 draft.
AFC NORTH
(4) Cincinnati Bengals (11-6): Your most likely worst-to-first candidate – hardly a hot take given Cincy won the division in 2021 and ’22. The numbers say the Bengals have, by far, the easiest schedule in the division, the other teams saddled with the three hardest dockets in the league. But they’ve also got hurdles: the departures of OC Brian Callahan, RB Joe Mixon, WR3 Tyler Boyd and DT D.J. Reader; unhappy campers in WR2 Tee Higgins and DE Trey Hendrickson; and Burrow, the keystone to the operation, on the road back from last year’s season-ending injury to his passing wrist. But RB Zack Moss, S Geno Stone and third-round WR Jermaine Burton could be among this season’s most underappreciated newcomers. And the margin for error at the outset seems pretty generous given the Patriots, Commanders and Panthers – owners of the league’s three worst records in 2023 – show up on Cincinnati’s September schedule.
Baltimore Ravens (10-7): Optimism is inevitably building given the addition of RB Derrick Henry to a team that finished a win shy of the Super Bowl after earning a No. 1 playoff seed last season. But how well will an established 30-year-old back accustomed to running starts from a deep backfield alignment actually mesh with QB Lamar Jackson, the two-time league MVP so often at his best when not under center? And despite Henry’s arrival, the Ravens must also overcome a litany of losses from the roster, particularly on defense and the offensive line, as well as Macdonald’s departure from the DC post. This isn’t to suggest Baltimore, which faces four 2023 division winners in the first seven weeks, isn’t playoff caliber – the Ravens only miss the postseason field in this projection after very narrowly losing the strength-of-victory tiebreaker to Cleveland.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8): Heading into his 18th season at the helm, we know HC Mike Tomlin won’t be associated with a losing ledger. But while these Steelers appear more formidable following the acquisitions of QBs Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, plus what might be this year’s most enviable class of rookies, things could certainly get messy as Arthur Smith installs a new offense for an organization attempting to get back to its hard-nosed roots – all while also trying to determine whether one of its new quarterbacks, with disparate skill sets and experience, is the answer for 2025 and beyond even though neither is signed for next season. And coming out of their Week 9 bye, the Steelers hit the road five times in a seven-week span. Pittsburgh hasn’t finished in last place since divisional realignment in 2002, but there’s a first time for everything – last year being the first in the Super Bowl era when an entire divisional membership (AFC North) finished above .500. Déjà vu?
AFC SOUTH
(3) Indianapolis Colts (11-6): They got a combined 14 games out of All-Pro RB Jonathan Taylor and rookie QB Anthony Richardson in 2023 – yet nearly made the playoffs anyway. Just wait until coach and strategist extraordinaire Shane Steichen is playing with a full deck – Richardson, a self-described mix of Jackson and Cam Newton flashing as advertised – one that now includes rookie WR Adonai Mitchell. The defense has also been augmented by a rookie, first-round DE Laiatu Latu, and should field one of the league’s best pass rushes. And with no 2023 playoff teams on the schedule after Week 12, the Colts are set up to perhaps be postseason dark horses in 2024.
(6) Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7): They spent big bucks in free agency and might’ve gotten a gem in first-round WR Brian Thomas Jr. But if newly minted QB Trevor Lawrence and WR Christian Kirk are fully healthy, and key youngsters (Lawrence, LB Devin Lloyd, OLB Travon Walker and OT Anton Harrison among them) continue to develop, a club coming off dissimilar 9-8 campaigns – ending with a surge in 2022 and flameout in 2023 – could be back in the playoff mix.
AFC WEST
(1) Kansas City Chiefs (13-4): With speed receivers Hollywood Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy now in the fold, widespread expectations that – despite an open question at left tackle – an offense that bogged down at times in 2023 could return to its combustible ways. The defense has never been better since HC Andy Reid arrived in 2013. And given the generally moderate (at best) forecast for the remainder of a division the Chiefs have ruled since 2016, it seems highly likely they’ll improve on last season’s 11-6 record – the worst since Patrick Mahomes became QB1 in 2018. Beyond that, this very capable team has a tall task if it’s to break ground as the first to achieve a Super Bowl three-peat – none of the previous eight teams that have gone back to back since 1966 have gotten back to Super Sunday the following year, and three missed the playoffs entirely.
Los Angeles Chargers (9-8): The last time new HC Jim Harbaugh took over an NFL team, the 2011 49ers, it made a seven-win improvement and nearly qualified for Super Bowl 46 before falling in overtime of that season’s NFC title game. That might be too much to ask of these Bolts, particularly after they were forced into some offseason cost purging that hit the receiving corps especially hard. Still, plenty of talent remains, and the Chargers are seemingly in better shape at quarterback than those Niners with Justin Herbert, who’s set to operate behind an O-line recharged by rookie RT Joe Alt. What seems to be a favorable season-ending schedule could vault this team into what might be a watershed 2025 campaign.
Denver Broncos (4-13): Rookie QB Bo Nix may execute HC Sean Payton’s offense more efficiently than did Wilson, his two-year tenure in the Rockies coming to an abrupt and expensive end in March. But Nix doesn’t appear to have nearly the help that fellow rookies Caleb Williams and even Daniels have in what has all the makings of a reset in Denver – one that may not bear serious fruit for several years.
NFC playoffs
Wild card: (2) Packers def. (7) Bears; (6) Rams def. (3) Eagles; (5) Lions def. (4) Falcons
Divisional: (1) 49ers def. (6) Rams; (2) Packers def. (5) Lions
Championship game: (2) Packers def. (1) 49ers
AFC playoffs
Wild card: (2) Jets def. (7) Browns; (6) Jaguars def. (3) Colts; (4) Bengals def. (5) Bills
Divisional: (1) Chiefs def. (6) Jaguars; (2) Jets def. (4) Bengals
Championship game: (2) Jets def. (1) Chiefs
Super Bowl 59 (New Orleans)
Jets def. Packers
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.
